Something to ponder

Even though I recently mentioned a short squeeze set up, the stock markets overall movement needs to be monitored.  That is, if the market appears to be rolling over don’t be brave and think you should remain in long positions. The way to come out on top more times then not is to honor your stops and just exit; you can always rebuy.

I mentioned ASYT as a possible short squeeze candidate.  I now have a position that is slightly under water.  Because it’s earnings season, I’m a little concerned that the market will enter a neutral to down phase.  With this in mind, I’ve altered my thinking on ASYT. (And long positions in general)

I will not add the other half position and will raise my stop on the shares I already own to the $7.20 area.  This stop will not be a hard stop, but one I will watch and execute in that area based on volume.  In fact, if this stock opens green on Monday morning, I will sell my position and possibly look to reenter.

I am not at all comfortable with some of the market internals I see.  This doesn’t mean I’m bearish just cautious. There will be other opportunities.

Have a good night,

CC

 

potential trade: ASYT

Just wanted to throw out a potential trade Asyst Technologies: ASYT.

This stock has a little over 3 million shares short and two days ago cleared some resistance.  Today, with the market in an overall down trend, the shorts in ASYT failed to get this moving to the downside.  I read this as hidden strength. It won’t take much to get some short covering going and that is the basic play here.

Technically, since December the stock tried the $7.50 area three times and finally broke above it.  Although I would’ve liked to see more volume come in, lest we forget, it is the summer and volumes are typically weak.  The important thing is price action.

I’m a buyer here at $7.50. (half position  -I’d like to pick up the other half near $7.20 if it obliges.)  I will place my stop at the June low of $6.84.

Be aware that it could spike down to the $6.70 area and still remain in an uptrend.

Best wishes,

CC

note:  I chose my stop  ($6.84) not just for the obvious technical reason, but more so because I feel if it gets there the shorts are back in control.

 

All out ASYS

Volume is enormous.

New contract announced.

Now, ASYS is all over the slimy underworld of stock chat rooms.

This is my cue to exit.  Hence, I am all out here in the $12.50 area.  Could there be more upside? Yes.  However, I now have 50% profit in this and that is something I’m not willing to relinquish.

Great trade,

CC

 

ASYS break out

Patience has been rewarded. ASYS smashed its 52 week high. I have sold some shares as it crossed $10 but still have a fair amount.

Now, to temper this move somewhat: There is a conference going on tomorrow which will undoubtedly contain news. So, we could get a sell the news reaction here since all things solar have had big moves.

This was a easy as it gets in trading a stock. I hope any readers that happen by this blog will do a search for “ASYS” under the search tab at right and spend an hour or so reviewing all my posts.

It is my sincere hope that it helps someone identify a similar opportunity before the masses.

Too humid to post more. Plus, you should be on vacation!

All the best,

CC

 

Happy 4th of July

This is a nice short holiday week.  Tomorrow (Tuesday) is a half trading day and the markets are closed Wednesday.  Also,  just about every professional market maker, specialist and market guru is already on vacation –you should be too.  Welcome to summer time trading.

As for me, I should be taking the week off but probably will be around to watch some paint dry.  The dust hasn’t quite settled on a proposed MVIS trade, but I’m watching it all the same.   The recent action looks like weak hands (retail) are selling into the strong hands (institutional).  If you must trade something  a buy in the $4.60 area on a morning sell off might be worth a .10 – .20 cent scalp.  Be advised that you will own this stock until Thursday unless you sell before 1pm EST tomorrow.

I still like ASYS but volume is lacking.  However, due to its minuscule market cap this is a company I’m happy to own in the $8‘s.  Any news or even a silly rumor will easily push this stock past its 52 week high ($9.21)  I’d perefer to be in it before said news or rumor.  I’m a buyer at the break of the year high.  I’ve stated that previously in the blog.

Have a great Holiday.

CC

 

MicroVision

Just a little note:

I haven’t picked up any MVIS.  A couple days ago it looked like the warrant issue was being digested, but big volume came in today breaking the 50 DMA.  I’m no longer interested.  Let the dust settle here.

Speaking of no longer interested, this market has me looking at birds outside my office.  Very difficult market to trade unless you are a day trader then you are loving it: violent moves in the DOW, NASD and SPX making for some very good short scalps.

More later…

CC

 

TTG wrap and Something new

I should’ve listened to myself regarding TTG. See this post which was right on target.

The past week saw Tutogen shares jump all over the place. I am out with a profit and will wait and see what Monday brings. Difficult to say what is going on except that it might be quarter end related. None-the-less I needed to get off that roller coaster; it was making me nauseous.

I’m looking to take a possible position in Microvision, symbol: MVIS in the low 5’s.

I’m pressed for time this evening so I won’t go into detail suffice it to say I like how this stock acted regarding its called warrants. (Brought in a lot of cash.) Seems to be a good turn around play too. But I will have to do more due diligence.

At present, this will be just a trade for me going into the quarter end. Remember, strong stocks tend to be bought as the quarter draws to a close. Thus, making the fund manager appear “special” because he or she was in a stock that had a substantial positive move. We are not really supposed to know that the fund only purchased Microvision for the last week or so of the run! Ah, the games people play with our money.

Good night,

CC

 

Sold all shares of TTG

I just sold 500 shares I purchased for the blog portfolio back in April at $9.40. I will update that later. Also, I sold some other shares I had. Currently, I’m all out of Tutogen. (I didn’t want to wait for the move back to the 20 DMA or $10. As far as I’m concerned, this is a decent spike, something I was looking for, to sell into. A profit is a good thing.

The upgrade early this morning by Roth Capital was the final straw for me to sell. This is the same firm that no more than 20 days ago put a hold rating on Tutogen. These broker games are not something I like to see. I could accept it somewhat had the stock not been up so much already this year .

I will watch Tutogen closely into months’s end and may take a small scalp. For now, I’m happy to be out even though selling at the top of the channel would’ve been the better play.

CC

Update:  Amex is still having problems.  Heaven forbid we get a massive down move in the market.  It won’t be easy to close out any position.  If you use those GTC stop orders, at least when the dust settles you will be one of the first shareholders to exit should “technical issues” show up…and they will.

 

TTG something askew?

I’m trying not to micromanage this TTG trade but the sell off even on low volume has my attention. I want to add shares right here in the low $8.90’s, but it looks like the 100DMA at $8.75 will be tested. I will add near the 100DMA unless I start seeing the ask being hit on good volume.

Of note is the consistency over the past 4 days selling. Down volume has been almost the same every one of those days. This isn’t day trade action this is fund related. Also, long tails on the daily candlesticks seem to suggest buyers trying to support it. I’m puzzled?

There is about 2 months of price action in the $8.50 to $9 area so I consider this area highly significant.

I think we find out before July 1st the reason behind the price action.

UPDATE:  AMEX had technical issues in the afternoon.  TTG actually showed up as a trading halt with my broker.  It wasn’t halted, but that didn’t help the stock.

 

TTG update

TTG is in the midst of one heck of a shake or is it? Look at the chart below and notice a clearly defined channel on the one year chart:

All-in-all I still like the company and the chart is still okay. (I don’t like that it pierced the 50 DMA but here’s where I think it gets supported.) It would’ve been smart to take some off the table when it neared the top channel two weeks ago. My excuse is I have been preoccupied with other things. It is the summer time and that’s just the way it is.

Tutogen may have some institutions that bought in around the first of the year taking a little profit. After all, the stock price moved from $6 to $11 or approximately +84% in a relatively short time frame. With the 2nd quarter or half year fast approaching, it makes sense to lock in some gains to pretty up the mutual fund statements set to hit the mail in a few weeks.

Will Tutogen go lower? Well, yes, it is now approaching the low point in the above channel; it could go down to $8.50 area and the trend still be intact.

Specifically, I’m going to trade it this way:

I fully expect a run on the 20 day moving average ($10) and soon. The volume on this pull back has been minimal on a decent 10% retrace. (This is code for I wouldn’t wince buying Tutogen here in the $9.25 area.) I plan to sell some or all my position on this bounce.

Why am I selling? Two reasons: I want to make certain that the recent price action isn’t financing news i.e., a share offering or something else negative looming that has leaked. Second, going into quarter end, I’m sensing some early profit taking in a lot of small cap stocks and that has me concerned. Games are normally played around this time and I don’t want to play. Moreover, trading volumes are about to drop and a stock like Tutogen will just stagnate for the summer or possibly move down on little to no volume. I’ve read this story before: It’s boring and always ends with me saying, “I should’ve sold.” Anyway, it is a personal choice for me.

That’s it for now,

CC